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In our previous article, we identified Bitcoin was moving in a reflexive rally powered by less bad economic conditions and positive investor sentiment. the daily/weekly trendlines remain untested.A 5-wave impulsive movement that ended with a blow-off top at $25k,.Currently, the most significant bearish indicators include: However, indicators have since rapidly shifted bearish, prompting us to believe the rally is over. Technically speaking, Bitcoin has moved impressively bullish since bottoming at $17,637 on June 18th, 2022. We're also exceedingly worried about the ongoing DOJ probe into Tether ( USDT-USD) we suspect more crypto exchange insolvencies are on the way, and we expect global Monkeypox cases will worsen into 2023.We expect new regulations will soon require Ethereum applications to collect user information.Going forward, further downside in Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) can be powered by worsening economic conditions, increasing regulatory pressure, and the shattering of many deeply held cryptocurrency beliefs.Consequently, we expect Bitcoin will decline to at least $13.7k (precisely 80% below its all-time high) by November. If there is another "cryptocurrency cycle," it could see governments FOMO into Bitcoin in efforts to mitigate inflation).Īs monetary conditions tighten and stocks collapse, we believe Bitcoin's previous growth trend is no longer sustainable. This hype emerged as retail FOMO in 2017 and institutional FOMO in 2021. Therefore, the data shows that Bitcoin's growth rate has always been supported by a beneficial market that promoted increasing hype. Bitcoin's hype cycles together form a decade-long 5-wave impulsive movement that peaks at $68k/BTC (identified with the orange lines).
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These hype cycles are identified with the green and red boxes in the chart above. Observably, an increasing stock market has always supported Bitcoin:Īmidst such extensively beneficial market conditions, Bitcoin's price has swung bullishly between two massive hype cycles (firstly driven by retail from 2012 to 2017 and secondly by institutions from 2018 to 2021). Now, when faced with a bearish stock market and high rates, we expect Bitcoin's price will plummet. This includes 13 years with a Federal Funds rate between 0% - 2%, promoting a consistently bullish market for stocks. To understand this, you must note that a backdrop of favorable financial conditions has characterized Bitcoin's entire existence.
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The crypto market's over-reliance on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market.Īfter a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin's all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I've ever seen.Incoming regulations for Ethereum ( ETH-USD) and DeFi,.We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including: With Bitcoin's unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD) most recent bull trend.